Methodology
League Logic is a football analytics product, not a bookmaker. We compare model probabilities against bookmaker pricing to highlight where the market may be underestimating an outcome.
Core model
The base model blends Elo strength, recent form, head-to-head context, and league-level home-advantage assumptions. Those inputs are converted into expected-goals estimates and then run through a Poisson scoreline model to derive probabilities for 1X2, totals, and BTTS markets.
Data sources
FootyStats provides fixtures, bookmaker consensus odds, and completed results. ClubElo provides the daily strength-rating signal. TheSportsDB is used in selected historical and supplemental workflows.
Freshness and updates
User-facing routes are DB-first. A backend scheduler refreshes odds, Elo, results, and snapshots on a fixed cadence so public pages do not trigger expensive provider fetches at request time.
Confidence and limitations
Not every fixture has the same data quality. Some matches have thinner form history, missing provider stats, or fallback Elo mappings. League Logic surfaces useful directional analysis, but no model can guarantee profit or predict every match outcome.
Responsible use
League Logic content is informational only. If you choose to bet, only do so within your means and treat predictions as one input into a disciplined decision-making process.